Week Four: Celebrations and Sea Surface Temperature!

Posted on July 12, 2015 by Micaela Edelson

I am no longer writing for this blog as a teenager! My twentieth birthday was Saturday and my family and best-friend came down to Newport for the weekend! We walked around Hatfield, we walked along the Bay front, visited the beach, did a little hiking, and celebrated my birthday at the Noodle café. The weekend was like home at the beach!

This week at work I was researching predicted sea-surface temperatures in 2100 for each ecoregion. I also had to find values for each of International Panel on Climate Change’s Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). These are emission scenarios that could occur over the course of the century depending on emission restrictions and other climate change initiatives that we pursue. The four scenarios are 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5—named after the range of possible radiative forcings in 2100. As I am finding four projections for each of the twelve ecoregions, I have to find 48 values. However, the literature does not have all of those numbers and I am waiting until this week to talk to one of mentors, Henry, to get his opinion on what the course of action should be as he was out of town most of this past week.

Nonetheless, what I have found has been worrisome. All of the values I have found project at least a 1˚C increase by the end of the century with some scenarios predicting up to a 5˚C increase. In order to determine organisms’ relative vulnerability to an increase in sea surface temperature, Henry is developing a table of thermal cutpoints for each ecoregion based on current mean sea surface temperature data and the projected sea surface temperature values. None, low, moderate, and high risk of temperature increase for the species will be determined through the species’ thermal tolerance which is indicative of their current biogeographical distribution. Henry developed a complicated series of rules that I don’t completely understand and don’t think I can properly explain quite yet.

In addition to researching sea surface temperature, the other intern working in my office, Christina (my other mentor), and I were all supposed to get field work training on a boat last Friday; however, the intern was sick and we postponed the trip until next week. Since I was waiting for Henry to return, I didn’t have much research to do. Instead, I helped Christina write an abstract for a climate conference that she will attend in November. She will be presenting a poster on CBRAT and how it is incorporating climate change impacts and specific values to assess species’ vulnerability. She has presented at this conference before, but this will be the first time she is able to report on the climate side of CBRAT which will surely please the climatologists at the conference—many of whom have published studies that I have obtained values from.

Crustacean Examination

Posted on July 9, 2015 by sea_aus

After successfully deploying 23 pit traps in the last week (one went missing), on the 7^th we were able to check them after being open for 24 hours. The results were pleasing to see, as we did in fact have crabs of multiple species in all of our traps. Many sculpin were caught as well and were noted. The number of Hemigrapsus crabs seemed to increase as we got closer to shore and the number of Dungeness was less and more randomly distributed. We also found two strange looking crabs that turned out to be Pea crabs. As planned the size selection method worked in a fairly smooth manner. I say fairly, because the majority of the traps caught small crabs, but a few actually caught large crabs that we are unsure of as to how they managed to get in. (while molted soft enough to squeeze??). This will be repeated several more times as the summer continues on.

Here is a video of the Dungeness Crab GoPro footage that was shot a few weeks back. We believe the crab is exhibiting this behavior because he (it is a male) is trying to crack his own shell open so that he may begin molting. The video is sped up from 30fps to 120fps.

https://www.facebook.com/austin.r.prechtel/videos/10207203552717977/?l=3251973081910911355

Pit trap in action

Removing the zip ties on a trap to access the catch.

Staghorn sculpins that were caught in the traps

The panoramic camera work is taking a bit longer than expected, mostly because some equipment we were thought to of had by now, has not arrived so that testing our design is not possible yet. I have been working with a few video editing softwares that allow panoramas to be made via stitching.

This weekend a trip up to The Gorge is being made. Will post pictures!

Wading into the data…

Posted on July 9, 2015 by sea_ron

The end of week three signaled the shift into high gear or perhaps “low gear” because time doesn’t pass so quickly. The databases have been selected, the data has been pulled from papers, additional numbers have been received from researchers in several countries, and now I’m faced with making sense of it all. I know, it sounds pretty boring, and at times it can be. Looking at 4000 rows of data, debating how to weigh a lack or surplus of information from one site in order to compare it to another, figuring out how to make it all useful…it’s particularly challenging. But before we can begin teasing out exciting new information, the data mining stage is crucial. Outside the mind-numbing, we had a number of other activities going on this week: we had a productive and clarifying conference call with the lead developer of one of the models we will be working with, the Natural Capital Project’s inVEST Blue Carbon model. In addition, the grad/postdoc students at the EPA hosted an extremely helpful resume/CV workshop…it’s been 4 years since I changed the format of my CV and it definitely needed a refresh.

This past weekend was also the Fourth of July and I can’t think of any better way to celebrate America than going out bright and early to explore Caper Perpetua, part of a federally protected National Forest. It’s a beautiful manifestation of one of the world’s greatest land conservation schemes–the US National Forest System, which is truly something all Americans should be proud of. While there, I finally satisfied one of my goals coming out to Oregon: tide-pooling on the Pacific coast.

Is this the new normal?

Posted on July 8, 2015 by Kaity Goldsmith

For my final blog post, I wanted to discuss a project I have been working on for the past 6 months about a topic that impacts not just ocean and coastal ecosystems but all ecosystems across the state of Oregon. This year, Oregon fresh water systems are seeing harmful algal blooms (HABs), which are toxic to animals and humans, earlier than normal. HABs in the marine environment for the first time caused a coast-wide shut down of the razor clam harvest. The fire season is already ramping up and is predicted to be more severe and last longer than the traditional season. Drought conditions are causing emergency drought declarations across the state. The list of unusual and severe climate conditions and their impacts to the state is growing. While climate is influenced by many factors, including El Niño and the Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and “the Blob”, some are asking if this is the new norm? Climate change research indicates that it will be. So how prepared is the state of Oregon to maintain economic and social systems in light of this changing environment?
In 2010, the state began to grapple with these changes by writing a Climate Change Adaptation Framework (the Framework) that Oregon natural resource agencies could use as a guide to put plans in place to prepare and manage our systems under changing climatic conditions. The Framework identified 11 risks associated with climate change, many of which we are currently experiencing in the state (table 1). As the state begins to experience the likely future in Oregon, natural resource managers are looking to this Framework to help the state adapt to this new normal. Over the past few months, I have been surveying state natural resource agencies to synthesize their efforts for climate change adaptation since the Framework was created. This status report of adaptation efforts will provide the informational groundwork for moving forward with adaptation work in a more coordinated and strategic manner.

Risk Key
1	Increase in average annual air temperatures and likelihood of extreme heat events
2	Changes in hydrology and water supply; reduced snowpack and water availability in some basins; changes in water quality and timing of water availability
3	Increase in wildfire frequency and intensity
4	Increase in ocean temperatures, with potential for changes in ocean chemistry and increased ocean acidification
5	Increased incidence of drought
6	Increased coastal erosion and risk of inundation from increasing sea levels and increasing wave heights and storm surges
7	Changes in the abundance and geographical distributions of plant species and habitats for aquatic and terrestrial wildlife
8	Increase in diseases, invasive species, and insect, animal and plant pests
9	Loss of wetland ecosystems and services
10	Increased frequency of extreme precipitation events and incidence and magnitude of damaging floods
11	Increased incidence of landslides

Table 1

Summary of risks identified in The Climate Change Adaptation Framework

From the momentum and direction established by the 2010 Framework, I have seen that many initiatives and efforts have taken place to address climate change adaptation. The North Coastal Climate Adaptation project is one notable project conducted by the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development’s Coastal Management Program and Oregon Sea Grant. This proof of concept project seeks to establish an effective suite of landscape-scale objectives as a foundation for decisions to improve community adaptation. The project has brought together a variety of state and federal agencies, local managers, and NGOs to address climate change adaptation at the landscape scale in Tillamook and Clatsop counties. If this proves a success, a similar format can be used in other communities in the state to address climate change adaptation. I was fortunate to participate in the 3rd of 3 meetings in this project. It was exciting to see such a range of individuals and entities represented at this meeting, and to talk in very practical terms about addressing climate change adaptation in these two counties. Much work remains to implement the strategies established during these meetings, but I am optimistic that this project can have an impact in adaptation efforts at the landscape-scale.
Many other state agencies have taken significant steps toward climate change adaptation. A Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) Regional Adaptation Framework is scheduled to come out early next year. This document will guide DEQ efforts to better integrate climate change adaptation into existing programs. In 2010, Oregon Parks and Recreation Department (OPRD) produced a Climate Change Response and Preparedness Action Plan. Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF) staff have developed a Climate Change Workplan for the Board of Forestry to generate recommendations for climate change adaptation. Oregon Water Resource Department (OWRD) led development of the state’s first Integrated Water Resources Strategy, adopted in August 2012. This Strategy includes two recommended actions aimed at supporting continued basin-scale climate change research efforts, and helping assist water users with climate change adaptation and resiliency strategies. Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW) completed “Preparing Oregon’s Fish, Wildlife, and Habitats for Future Climate Change: A Guide for State Adaptation Efforts” in 2008. This Guide has outlined a set of basic guiding principles for managing fish, wildlife, and habitats in a changing climate. Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) developed an Adaptation Strategy, a high level assessment of risks and opportunities, in 2012. Oregon Health Authority (OHA) published a statewide report about the connections between climate change and health, the Climate and Health Profile Report, and works within their Climate and Health Program to better understand how Oregon can prepare for new health risks associated with a changing climate. The Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI) created Coastal Erosion Hazard Maps for Lincoln, Tillamook, and Clatsop County as well as for Gold Beach, Nesika Beach, and Alsea Bay. These are just a few of the state adaptation efforts that have taken place since the establishment of the Framework in 2010 and included in my full synthesis report of Oregon adaptation efforts.
With several adaptation plans completed and many projects planned for the future, there were 2 common themes that emerged regarding climate change adaptation across state agencies. Research and monitoring are critical to decrease uncertainties about specific impacts from climate change for continued adaptation planning. Monitoring has been key in developing adaptation plans in the state. For example, the Coastal Beach Monitoring Network has monitored several locations since 2004 for coastal hazards, like erosion, to use the data and understand changes taking place on the coast and develop trends on the more rigorously monitored sites. The beaches are an integrated indicator of sea level rise, storm increase, and shoreline retreat. There is a need for more monitoring information through the coming decades to continue adaptation planning for all climate related risks. The other theme that emerged was the need to align adaptation efforts across natural resource agencies. Not only was this clear in the projects taking place, but also in the conversations I had. Natural resource managers want to learn about other state agency climate change adaptation efforts and work with other agencies to leverage resources and create comprehensive actions that address the climate change risks impacting a given landscape.
Ultimately, climate change adaptation efforts should and will continue to evolve in the state in the coming years. There is abundant scientific and anecdotal evidence that Oregon is already experiencing the effects of climate change (State of Oregon 2010). The Oregon Climate Assessment Report documents these effects and describes the more pronounced changes that are expected to occur in the coming decades (Oregon Climate Change Research Institute 2010). Climate change will affect all Oregonians, our communities, our natural resources, and our businesses. Adaptation is the Oregon tool for creating resilient and strong communities now and into the future that can withstand changing climate conditions.

References:
Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (2010), Oregon Climate Assessment Report, K.D. Dello and P.W. Mote (eds). College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR
State of Oregon (2010) The Oregon Climate Change Adaptation Framework. http://www.oregon.gov/ENERGY/GBLWRM/docs/Framework_Final_DLCD.pdf

A little staff bonding

Posted on July 8, 2015 by Haley

This week has been great being back in the office with our mentor, Tommy. We have been catching up on data entry from all of the data that we have been collecting up at Cape Falcon Marine Reserve the past few weeks. We’re headed back up there this coming weekend for our first weekend trip, so we’re excited to see the crowds mobbing to the beach for some surf time! Being back in Newport has provided us with opportunities to engage in a little staff bonding. Theo and I decided to donate blood with the Red Cross together yesterday; the donation site was located right outside of Rogue brewery! A quick walk from Hatfield. We were gifted $7 giftcards to Rogue for our donation, which we promptly used immediately after our donation was finished. It feels great to be more a part of the Newport community!

The SRGP Receives $205 Million for 2015-17!

Posted on July 8, 2015 by Geoff Ostrove

The Oregon Legislature recently approved $205 million to be used for the Seismic Rehabilitation Grant Program (SRGP). For 2015-16, $50 million will be spent on public schools. For 2015-2016, $125 million will be spent on public schools and another $30 million will be spent on emergency service buildings. The Legislature passed a separate bill to spend $125 million on a program to help build public schools in areas that are less seismically vulnerable. That means that Oregon will be spending at least $300 million in its effort to improve the seismic safety of public schools.

Check out this article: http://ijpr.org/post/2015-marks-banner-year-earthquake-preparedness-oregon

Cores, Chlorophyll, Canada

Posted on July 8, 2015 by sea_ros

It’s really awesome not being in 90+ degree weather.

Exhibit A

On Monday, some VIP EPA folks came down to the Newport office to poke around to see what our office has been up to (and to escape the heat too, I’m sure). Prior to my involvement/arrival, my mentor had developed a method for testing whether Oregon marshes were “keeping up” with rising tides by looking at marsh accretion. In eight different Oregonian estuaries, marker horizon method sites were implemented. By pouring on feldspar clay onto plots, an initial baseline is set. From then on, any time in the short or long term future a sediment core sample is taken, based on the distance of sediment accretion from the feldspar layer initially laid down, would tell you the amount of accretion happened in that period of time. To showcase the methodology, we drew a sample core from the marsh outside our office to show our visitors. Sediment cores are extracted using liquid nitrogen.

By measuring soil accretion, we can quantify how much marshlands (which are critical habitats for wildlife, responsible for nutrient removal, and other ecosystem services) are being affected by sea level rise. Current estimates suggest a 2-3 mm annual rise. Based on our sample core, we exceeded that estimate– which suggests, the sea level rise is happening and affecting marshlands at a faster rate than predicted.

Something this visual is really valuable in showing those who might not have a science background the kind of issues we’re dealing with. I really liked this method of marshland accretion measurement because it is 1) simple 2) easy 3) effective 4) very visual 5) consistent, which I feel are good characteristics every good study and design should have.

I was only involved with the prep for the core sample demo, and instead, was a part of another demo happening in the lab. A study a post-doc working with Cheryl (my mentor) is working on, is the effects of macroalgae mats on cockle behaviors. It was super cool seeing another visual demonstration. We had a tank set up with a layer of sand and a few cockles doing what they do best– burrowing. While we had the cockles chilling and hanging out, we placed macroalgae mats on the surface of the water, and by inducing a psuedo low-tide (by slowly draining the water from the tank), we were able to observe the cockles’ behavior.

When macroalgae mats descend (!!!!) on cockles, the pressure from the weight of the mats induce the cockles to use their foot to essentially, “escape” and try to push themselves out of the sediment and out of the mats. The study they were presenting was super cool and proved that this behavior was due to pressure changes detected by the cockles, instead of chemical cues or any other factor.

For the rest of the day and the day after, I proceeded to finish my chlorophyll extractions in the fume hood. It’s always disorienting working in a fume hood in subdued/dark settings for a majority of the day and then emerge out of the lab caves and realize it’s still day time. But I love it– lab work is my calling. I hope I’m realizing it’s my calling instead of me going crazy under dark room settings.

Note: crazy scientist eyes

We got to go out to the field this week as well ! Siuslaw estuary is officially my favorite system. Working out in estuaries and seeing the gorgeous never-ending forest landscapes of the PNW, has really convinced me to buy a house boat and live on the waters with my dog.

The night before fieldwork, the interns and I watched Bourne Identity, and I proceeded to have a uncannily similar nightmare soon after. I dreamt I was a fisherwoman on a boat in the Bering Sea and the boat capsized. The next thing I knew I was being pulled out of the waters and rescued with two of my crew. Looking down at my knuckles, I noticed stitches in the shape of an X. I freaked out and my crewmates told me to check the rest of my body. I lifted up my shirt and my crewmates exclaimed there was a branding on my back (Bourne-esque stuff here) and yelled, “DID THEY TAKE YOUR KIDNEYS?!” I then woke up to reality, in a sweat.

Why am I telling you about my weird nightmare?

The beginning of the Siuslaw sample sets were in the marine layer and was very similar to an episode of Deadliest Catch. Except, maybe without all the storms….and the crabs…and the general fishing…and the extreme weathers in general. Maybe it’s wrong for me to compare my not-so-fair weather conditions with one of the riskiest occupations on the waters. But anyhow, there was wind and salt water spraying on my face and the boat was rocking and I was loving it. It was definitely one of the most intense fieldwork I’ve had thus far. It calmed down as we went upriver, so I didn’t have to endure for too long.

en route to Siuslaw

After fieldwork, the post-doc I work with back home (whom I’ve become super close friends with) ended up moving to Canada this past month, and she surprised me with a phone call to catch up! I thought it was such a coincidence since shortly after the phone call, the interns and I attended a Canada Day get together put on by one of the grad students at Hatfield. It was only appropriate for this cake to make an appearance:

I learned a lot about poutine, Canadian hospitality, and the other grad students at Hatfield. Also, the ratio of dogs to people at this Canada celebration was amazingly high. If Canada is as fun as our Canada Day celebration, I wouldn’t mind spending some time there.

On Thursday, the EPA employees got to leave 2 hours early! Yay federal holidays! Yay working for the feds! Yaaaay!

For the Fourth, the interns had the opportunity to go tide pooling (real verb, y’all) and hiking around Cape Perpetua! Listening to country while driving up a mountain, instead of hiking up to see the view was real American of us. But, we were able to hike on several trails at the top, so I got to soak in some good PNW forest-ness.

Here’s me being a dork on the Oregon coast:

Adding Pisaster ochraceus to my goal list of species

Then we got to visit Devil’s Churn on the way back…

SAVE_20150704_153819

Waiting for the fireworks to start over the bay

Thanks to the Chelsea Rose (pictured below) and some well-weathered fishermen, we bought the freshest albacore tuna, right off the dock. I try my best to strive to obtain all my food as locally as possible, with the least food miles tacked on– but I’ve never had the opportunity to buy fish, the freshest possible way. We’re definitely spoiled around these parts.

Before

After

Mmmmm… seared to perfection.

Enjoy a couple more photos of life at HMSC:

Until next time…

Do you have a moment?

Posted on July 7, 2015 by Laura Ferguson

Would you help us improve our customer service by completing a short survey?

How many times have you been asked this question? How many times have you been the one asking it? The number of times I have asked someone to complete a survey has increased considerably in the last three months.

In May I asked all participants in the science-stakeholder engagement portion of the Willamette Water 2100 (WW2100) research at OSU to complete an online questionnaire about their participation in, expectations of, experiences with, and outcomes from WW2100. After inviting all 238 members of the WW2100 listserv to participate in my survey, reminding them, and then reminding them again, 137 WW2100 participants took the time (approximately 30 minutes) to thoughtfully respond to my questions. 137 respondents out of 238 invited is a respectable response rate of 48%. The questionnaire was about 30 questions long and looked something like this:

In my last post I shared about conducting interviews of select participants in WW2100. Using more than one method to gather data is called a ‘mixed methods approach’ and can deliver more robust results because they were found by more than one way. That is what I intend to do with my qualitative interview data and now my quantitative survey data.

Qualitative data analysis can be done in several ways but I have chosen to use a ‘fancy highlighting program’ called MaxQDA (description credit to Sarah Calhoun, MRM, OSU). This program allows a researcher to identify relevant text and organize it according to codes, or repeating ideas, which can then be displayed together on request. I have just completed my second pass of coding (identifying repeating ideas and organizing them into themes) so that now when I open MaxQDA on my computer, it looks something like this:

Concepts that emerged in the qualitative data can be assessed quantitatively using the survey data. I would like to share some (very) preliminary results from my analyses with you. One challenge that consistently emerged in the interviews was that participants held different expectations for the roles that stakeholders and research team members would play throughout the process. However, although the survey results indicate that stakeholders and research team members were expected to fulfill different roles, stakeholders and research team members did not differ in their expectations for each other. That is, albeit preliminarily, there was not a quantitative difference in expectations for the role of stakeholders and research team members. I’ll have to explore this challenge more.

Another aspect of stakeholder engagement that my survey can really illuminate involves the outcomes of having participated in such a process. My survey measured participant concepts of model utility (the scientific results), process utility (was it worth the time?), feeling heard, and understanding. I then correlated these concepts with a participant’s participation in the project. All four concepts were significantly positively correlated with participation. This means that individuals who reported greater participation also reported greater perception of model utility, process utility, feeling heard, and understanding. How neat is that?!

There is still a lot of work to be done but the data are in and now all that is left is to make sense of them. I split my time between the words of my interviewees and the numbers from my survey. Together they will tell a complete story of the WW2100 science-stakeholder engagement process which can then be read as an example for future engagement projects. Stay tuned for the final results and presentation!

Getting Started

Posted on July 6, 2015 by Laura Gray

It’s Monday morning of Week 4, already! Last week was cut short by the three-day weekend that came with Independence Day, but it was productive nonetheless. On Thursday, I hooked a ride to Newport and spent the afternoon on my first interview, at a CV workshop, and attending the weekly seminar at HMSC. It was a great day, all around, and I was happy to see a few of the other scholars, again, and to be able to attend the afternoon talk from Laurie Weitkamp on salmon in the Pacific Northwest. Today, I’ll be spending some time listening to and transcribing portions of the conversation I had on Friday, and trying to figure out what I can do to improve my next interview. I’m waiting to hear back from a number of people I emailed at the end of last week, so my calendar should continue filling up!

Although I’ve been over to Newport three times, already, it has always been for work and I haven’t seen much outside of HMSC. I finally got the chance to explore the coast a bit more this weekend when my family came up from California for Independence Day! We went up to the top of Mary’s Peak–the highest point of the Coast Range, at 4,097 feet–and then spent the afternoon just north of Newport, exploring the beach and some impressive geological features at Devil’s Punchbowl State Park. Agate Beach was incredible that evening, as well, with its dunes on the upper beach and the flats sloping off into infinity at low tide. One of my goals for the summer is to read two natural history books on the Oregon Coast; seeing more of the coast this weekend got me excited, and I’m hoping to find some good reads at the library this week.

Week Three: (Sea)stars and Stripes

Posted on July 5, 2015 by Micaela Edelson

This past week has been very exciting! A new intern came to work in my office and it has been a lot more interesting having someone to share my eight-hour day with. Anthony is a pathways intern from California and it’s his first time in Oregon, so we have been showing him around. This past week I have been finding aragonite saturation thresholds for decapods (i.e. crabs, lobsters, shrimp). I needed to find low, moderate, and high values. So a low aragonite saturation value, would have a high impact on calcifying organisms, and a high aragonite saturation value would have a lesser impact. The less aragonite in the ocean, the harder it is for organisms to calcify, so they have to devote more energy to calcifying and less to other things, such as growth. Thus, if an organism has trouble growing because the aragonite saturation state, the impact would be less than if the aragonite saturation state has caused the organism mortality. Based on the literature, we decided 1.5 would be an appropriate low-impact threshold and 0.9 would be a high-impact threshold. We could not find anything that supported a moderate-impact threshold, so we just averaged the low and high numbers and used 1.2 as a moderate-impact threshold.

In addition to working all week, the interns went on many adventures. We had another bonfire on the beach on Thursday night and spent our day off on Friday relaxing at the Bayfront. On the fourth of July, we got up early to see the tide pools during low tide at Strawberry Hill. We saw starfish, urchins, anemones, fish, crabs, and seals! It was so amazing to see all of the marine life in the wild!

Afterwards, we went hiking near Cape Perpetua, went to Devil’s Churn, and stopped by a flea market in Yachats. We got back to Hatfield by 1 and got all showered and fed for the small Independence Day party we had. The day was completed with fireworks overlooking the bay.

We worked during the week and played during the weekend, a week that was perfectly balanced.

Sea Grant Scholars

Learning through experience, for the future of our oceans