Is this the new normal?

For my final blog post, I wanted to discuss a project I have been working on for the past 6 months about a topic that impacts not just ocean and coastal ecosystems but all ecosystems across the state of Oregon. This year, Oregon fresh water systems are seeing harmful algal blooms (HABs), which are toxic to animals and humans, earlier than normal. HABs in the marine environment for the first time caused a coast-wide shut down of the razor clam harvest. The fire season is already ramping up and is predicted to be more severe and last longer than the traditional season. Drought conditions are causing emergency drought declarations across the state. The list of unusual and severe climate conditions and their impacts to the state is growing. While climate is influenced by many factors, including El Niño and the Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and “the Blob”, some are asking if this is the new norm? Climate change research indicates that it will be. So how prepared is the state of Oregon to maintain economic and social systems in light of this changing environment?
In 2010, the state began to grapple with these changes by writing a Climate Change Adaptation Framework (the Framework) that Oregon natural resource agencies could use as a guide to put plans in place to prepare and manage our systems under changing climatic conditions. The Framework identified 11 risks associated with climate change, many of which we are currently experiencing in the state (table 1). As the state begins to experience the likely future in Oregon, natural resource managers are looking to this Framework to help the state adapt to this new normal. Over the past few months, I have been surveying state natural resource agencies to synthesize their efforts for climate change adaptation since the Framework was created. This status report of adaptation efforts will provide the informational groundwork for moving forward with adaptation work in a more coordinated and strategic manner.

 

Risk Key
1Increase in average annual air temperatures and likelihood of extreme heat events
2Changes in hydrology and water supply; reduced snowpack and water availability in some basins; changes in water quality and timing of water availability
3Increase in wildfire frequency and intensity
4Increase in ocean temperatures, with potential for changes in ocean chemistry and increased ocean acidification
5Increased incidence of drought
6Increased coastal erosion and risk of inundation from increasing sea levels and increasing wave heights and storm surges
7Changes in the abundance and geographical distributions of plant species and habitats for aquatic and terrestrial wildlife
8Increase in diseases, invasive species, and insect, animal and plant pests
9Loss of wetland ecosystems and services
10Increased frequency of extreme precipitation events and incidence and magnitude of damaging floods
11Increased incidence of landslides

Table 1

Summary of risks identified in The Climate Change Adaptation Framework

 

From the momentum and direction established by the 2010 Framework, I have seen that many initiatives and efforts have taken place to address climate change adaptation. The North Coastal Climate Adaptation project is one notable project conducted by the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development’s Coastal Management Program and Oregon Sea Grant. This proof of concept project seeks to establish an effective suite of landscape-scale objectives as a foundation for decisions to improve community adaptation. The project has brought together a variety of state and federal agencies, local managers, and NGOs to address climate change adaptation at the landscape scale in Tillamook and Clatsop counties. If this proves a success, a similar format can be used in other communities in the state to address climate change adaptation. I was fortunate to participate in the 3rd of 3 meetings in this project. It was exciting to see such a range of individuals and entities represented at this meeting, and to talk in very practical terms about addressing climate change adaptation in these two counties. Much work remains to implement the strategies established during these meetings, but I am optimistic that this project can have an impact in adaptation efforts at the landscape-scale.
Many other state agencies have taken significant steps toward climate change adaptation. A Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) Regional Adaptation Framework is scheduled to come out early next year. This document will guide DEQ efforts to better integrate climate change adaptation into existing programs. In 2010, Oregon Parks and Recreation Department (OPRD) produced a Climate Change Response and Preparedness Action Plan. Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF) staff have developed a Climate Change Workplan for the Board of Forestry to generate recommendations for climate change adaptation. Oregon Water Resource Department (OWRD) led development of the state’s first Integrated Water Resources Strategy, adopted in August 2012. This Strategy includes two recommended actions aimed at supporting continued basin-scale climate change research efforts, and helping assist water users with climate change adaptation and resiliency strategies. Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW) completed “Preparing Oregon’s Fish, Wildlife, and Habitats for Future Climate Change: A Guide for State Adaptation Efforts” in 2008. This Guide has outlined a set of basic guiding principles for managing fish, wildlife, and habitats in a changing climate. Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) developed an Adaptation Strategy, a high level assessment of risks and opportunities, in 2012. Oregon Health Authority (OHA) published a statewide report about the connections between climate change and health, the Climate and Health Profile Report, and works within their Climate and Health Program to better understand how Oregon can prepare for new health risks associated with a changing climate. The Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI) created Coastal Erosion Hazard Maps for Lincoln, Tillamook, and Clatsop County as well as for Gold Beach, Nesika Beach, and Alsea Bay. These are just a few of the state adaptation efforts that have taken place since the establishment of the Framework in 2010 and included in my full synthesis report of Oregon adaptation efforts.
With several adaptation plans completed and many projects planned for the future, there were 2 common themes that emerged regarding climate change adaptation across state agencies. Research and monitoring are critical to decrease uncertainties about specific impacts from climate change for continued adaptation planning. Monitoring has been key in developing adaptation plans in the state. For example, the Coastal Beach Monitoring Network has monitored several locations since 2004 for coastal hazards, like erosion, to use the data and understand changes taking place on the coast and develop trends on the more rigorously monitored sites. The beaches are an integrated indicator of sea level rise, storm increase, and shoreline retreat. There is a need for more monitoring information through the coming decades to continue adaptation planning for all climate related risks. The other theme that emerged was the need to align adaptation efforts across natural resource agencies. Not only was this clear in the projects taking place, but also in the conversations I had. Natural resource managers want to learn about other state agency climate change adaptation efforts and work with other agencies to leverage resources and create comprehensive actions that address the climate change risks impacting a given landscape.
Ultimately, climate change adaptation efforts should and will continue to evolve in the state in the coming years. There is abundant scientific and anecdotal evidence that Oregon is already experiencing the effects of climate change (State of Oregon 2010). The Oregon Climate Assessment Report documents these effects and describes the more pronounced changes that are expected to occur in the coming decades (Oregon Climate Change Research Institute 2010). Climate change will affect all Oregonians, our communities, our natural resources, and our businesses. Adaptation is the Oregon tool for creating resilient and strong communities now and into the future that can withstand changing climate conditions.

References:
Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (2010), Oregon Climate Assessment Report, K.D. Dello and P.W. Mote (eds). College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR
State of Oregon (2010) The Oregon Climate Change Adaptation Framework. http://www.oregon.gov/ENERGY/GBLWRM/docs/Framework_Final_DLCD.pdf

The SRGP Receives $205 Million for 2015-17!

The Oregon Legislature recently approved $205 million to be used for the Seismic Rehabilitation Grant Program (SRGP). For 2015-16, $50 million will be spent on public schools. For 2015-2016, $125 million will be spent on public schools and another $30 million will be spent on emergency service buildings. The Legislature passed a separate bill to spend $125 million on a program to help build public schools in areas that are less seismically vulnerable. That means that Oregon will be spending at least $300 million in its effort to improve the seismic safety of public schools.

Check out this article: http://ijpr.org/post/2015-marks-banner-year-earthquake-preparedness-oregon

Here, There, and Everywhere

I’m writing today not from the northern Oregon coast—where I spent the last year as a Natural Resources Policy Fellow at the Tillamook Estuaries Partnership—but from Raleigh, North Carolina. It’s different here, of course. From what I’ve seen so far, it’s significantly cheaper and significantly warmer. You can get a plate of hush puppies for fifty cents, beautiful bright red cardinals hop from branch to branch, and strangers about your mom’s age casually call you “honey.” But like Oregon, it’s a lush, green place invested in and dependent on its natural resources, coastal resources included. Sea Grant, the National Estuary Program, and the National Estuarine Research Reserve all have active, large branches in North Carolina. In addition, both Duke University and the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill operate marine labs out on the coast.

But I am not here to work for any of these fine institutions. Thanks to a fellowship with the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), I will be spending the summer at the Raleigh News and Observer as a science reporter. Every summer for over forty years, AAAS has placed current or recent science graduate students at newspapers, magazines, radio stations, and other media outlets. I am lucky enough to be one of 20 students or near-students (I actually graduated with my Master’s in March of 2014) selected this year.

Although I expect to cover a wide variety of science stories, after a year working for TEP and Sea Grant, I’m curious about the environmental issues faced by this coastal state. Like TEP, the Abermarle-Pamlico National Estuary Partnership seeks to monitor and restore its watershed and to encourage public participation in that process. In fact, the APNEP Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan reads very familiar. Like TEP, this estuary partnership seeks to rehabilitate an estuary from the effects of “forestry, farming, industry, mining, and development” and is working to improve anadromous fish passage, wetland function, riparian plant communities, public access to waterways, and landowner education about nutrient management. In other words, concerned citizens 3,000 miles away from each other are working on solutions to many of the same problems. Whether or not I am able to write about this topic for the News and Observer, this is the kind of connection I want to highlight in my future career as a writer.

Thanks to Oregon Sea Grant for putting me in action this past year at an agency working to effect change; now I will be reporting on such agencies. I believe my experience as a Natural Resource Policy Fellow will help me become a critical, accurate, curious, and well-informed science writer—this summer and wherever I find myself afterwards.

 

The Agora Journalism Center & the 2015 APA Conference

A few weeks ago, I had the opportunity to attend a build-a-thon at the Agora Journalism Center. During this 3-day event, I worked with web designers, map makers, journalists, and subject area experts to create a web app that will help Oregon residents prepare for the Cascadia Earthquake. The app allows the user to enter any address in Oregon in order to receive a personalized story about what you should expect to experience if the Cascadia Earthquake occurred while you at that specific location. Your personalized story tells you what you should expect when the earthquake occurs (shaking intensity, soil liquefaction, landslides, etc.); how long your community will have to go without resources such as electricity, fuel, and running water; and how you should prepare yourself for the earthquake. In the end, our app produces over 300 individualized stories that help inform Oregon residents how to prepare for the Cascadia Earthquake based on location.  Last week, I returned to the Agora Journalism Center to talk about this app as part of my presentation at the “What is Journalism?” Conference.  Currently, OPB is working to finalize the app, and it should be available to the public very soon.

Here is a promotional video about the app: https://vimeo.com/125524401. Please forward it to anyone who might be interested.

Then, this past Monday, I got to head up to Seattle to present about the Seismic Rehabilitation Grant Program (SRGP) at the American Planning Association’s 2015 National Convention.  Not only did I get to learn about community planning and emergency management efforts taking place around the country, I also got to promote the SRGP to a ton of APA attendees.

So, stayed tuned for the new Cascadia Earthquake web app and more updates about the SRGP.

How will the Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake Impact Hospitals and Water Systems?

DOGAMI recently released Yumei Wang’s analysis of how the Cascadia earthquake will impact hospitals and water systems. I suggest checking out the executive summary: http://public.health.oregon.gov/Preparedness/Prepare/Documents/oha-earthquake-risk-report-2014.pdf

The main takeaway for me: “Both pilot study hospitals have seismic vulnerabilities and are expected to incur significant hospital bed shortages for over 90 days after a Cascadia earthquake… Lincoln City hospital is estimated to incur significant damage due to its proximity to the Cascadia subduction zone and will slowly recover to operate at about 52% bed capacity in 90 days. A number of bridges that connect the community and hospital, including bridges crossing the Siletz River, are expected to incur major damage and impede citizen access to the hospital complex. Although the McMinnville hospital has modern seismic structural engineering, design, and construction, it is expected to have a severe reduction in function due to shaking damage. It is expected to recover to about 76% bed capacity in 90 days. A number of bridges that connect the community and hospital, including the Three Mile Lane bridge and nearby Highway 18 bridges to the west of hospital complex, are expected to incur major damage and impede citizen access.”

315th Anniversary of the Last Great Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake

At approximately 9 p.m. Pacific Standard Time on Jan. 26, 1700, a magnitude 8 or 9 earthquake occurred on the Cascadia Subduction Zone, a 600-mile stretch between Vancouver Island, British Columbia and Cape Mendocino, California. 315 years later, we are preparing for another Cascadia Subduction Zone event to occur.  Check out these OPB articles to learn more:

Can Coastal Communities Survive a Tsunami?

Japanese Earthquake Holds Lessons For Oregon Coast

Jan. 26, 1700: How Scientists Know When the Last Big Earthquake  Happened Here

Why Would You Build A Hospital In A Tsunami Zone?