{"id":8901,"date":"2018-03-12T10:56:17","date_gmt":"2018-03-12T17:56:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/impact\/?p=8901"},"modified":"2018-03-15T18:12:42","modified_gmt":"2018-03-16T01:12:42","slug":"mathematician-explains-populations-handle-random-disturbances","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dev.blogs.oregonstate.edu\/impact\/2018\/03\/mathematician-explains-populations-handle-random-disturbances\/","title":{"rendered":"Mathematician explains how populations handle random disturbances"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mathematician\u00a0Patrick De Leenheer<\/a> and his collaborators have developed a mathematical framework to understand how population-reducing events of varying frequency and intensity, like fires, floods, storms and droughts, can affect a species\u2019 longtime survival ability.<\/p>\n

The work by De Leenheer, professor of mathematics, and his research team addresses \u201ccritical growth thresholds\u201d for species subjected to random events that immediately and substantially impact the species\u2019 population levels. Edward Waymire<\/a>, professor emeritus of mathematics is one of the co-authors.<\/p>\n

The research is important in part because one of the effects of global climate change is an uptick in these types of events.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat are the effects of our human operations on populations on this Earth?\u201d De Leenheer said. \u201cWe only have one Earth, so we should be concerned about that.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The predictive modeling research builds on earlier work by De Leenheer and Oregon State collaborators that looked at river flooding\u2019s effects on three insect species and savanna fires\u2019 impact on a perennial grass.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat earlier model shows promise for predicting population dynamics after multiple disturbance events and for management of river flows and fires,\u201d said De Leenheer.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u201cThe main objective was to determine via simulations when a population was resilient enough to withstand these disturbances and when it was not.\u201d<\/p>\n

That paper, published last year in Ecology Letters<\/em>, did not address the randomness of events\u2019 occurrence, but the latest work, in the Journal of Mathematical Biology<\/em>, does.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis class of models is larger than the previous one and also considers a worst-case scenario,\u201d De Leenheer said. \u201cWe don\u2019t incorporate possible habitat improvements associated with certain disturbance events. Our main goal was analyzing when these models predict population extinction or persistence.\u201d<\/p>\n

The analysis identified specific ecological and disturbance parameter combinations for which \u201cthreshold values can be determined such that when these thresholds are crossed, the system\u2019s extinction or persistence behavior changes fundamentally,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s a key feature of these models,\u201d De Leenheer said. \u201cThey provide precise conditions for which the mortality rate due to the frequency and magnitude of these episodic disturbances exceeds the natural, net growth rate of a population. The thresholds mark a boundary between a persisting population of fluctuating size and one that becomes extinct at an exponentially fast rate.\u201d<\/p>\n

The research provides a framework for biologists and other life scientists to better understand how a particular system behaves when it gets disturbed in ways that aren\u2019t predictable, or are predictable only in certain terms.<\/p>\n

\u201cScientists have hypothesized how big swings in temperature affect natural populations, and this research provides some answers,\u201d De Leenheer said. \u201cThe intensity and the frequency of disturbances define precise thresholds on ecological parameters that determine whether a population will go extinct.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read the full article\u00a0here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mathematicians predict population dynamics for species after multiple disturbance events caused by global climate change. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6617,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1507,641666,523],"tags":[648365,112,1320,1729,37185],"class_list":["post-8901","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-faculty-and-staff","category-mt","category-research","tag-author-srila-nayak","tag-climate-change","tag-environment","tag-healthy-planet","tag-stem"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6vHeb-2jz","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":6438,"url":"https:\/\/dev.blogs.oregonstate.edu\/impact\/2017\/04\/quantifying-risk-changing-world\/","url_meta":{"origin":8901,"position":0},"title":"Quantifying 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