{"id":11568,"date":"2019-07-08T17:11:18","date_gmt":"2019-07-09T00:11:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/impact\/?p=11568"},"modified":"2019-07-08T17:11:18","modified_gmt":"2019-07-09T00:11:18","slug":"scientists-lay-out-plan-for-managing-rivers-to-be-resilient-to-climate-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dev.blogs.oregonstate.edu\/impact\/2019\/07\/scientists-lay-out-plan-for-managing-rivers-to-be-resilient-to-climate-change\/","title":{"rendered":"Scientists lay out plan for managing rivers to be resilient to climate change"},"content":{"rendered":"

New strategies for river management are needed to maintain water supplies and avoid big crashes in populations of aquatic life, researchers argue in a perspective piece published today in\u00a0Nature<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The scientists say a fresh approach is necessary as the climate warms, which has led to historic die-offs like the January 2019 event in the Murray-Darling Basin of Australia that saw severe water shortages bring hardship to residents and kill millions of fish.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe world\u2019s rivers are facing tough times,\u201d said the editorial\u2019s lead author, Jonathan Tonkin, who just completed a post-doctoral appointment in the College of Science. \u201cIconic species like the Murray cod, the largest freshwater fish in Australia, are in danger of vanishing. In a 2018 heat wave in Germany and Switzerland, thousands of fish died. The multiyear drought in California has restricted water supplies and wreaked havoc on wetlands, riparian forests, fish and other aquatic life.\u201d<\/p>\n

Tonkin and his co-authors outline a four-part plan for an \u201cadaptive\u201d approach to river management \u2013 moving beyond simply monitoring ecosystems to understanding the biological mechanisms at play.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe need to develop forecasting tools that project how key species, life stages and ecosystems respond to environmental changes,\u201d said co-author David Lytle, professor of integrative biology. \u201cWe can\u2019t just track things like species diversity and population abundance and compare them to historical averages \u2013 often by the time negative trends are detected, it\u2019s too late to turn them around.\u201d<\/p>\n

The answer is developing \u201cprocess-based\u201d models that can track and predict how ecosystems change when conditions \u2013 like smaller river flows \u2013 change. The models can be tailored to life stages of populations, whole communities of species and sequences of events, enabling tipping points to be identified.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor example, a drier future with fewer and smaller floods has been projected to reorganize and simplify the interactions between riparian plant species in the dryland river systems of the American Southwest,\u201d said Tonkin, now at the University of Canterbury in New Zealand. \u201cThe projected changes could reduce communities\u2019 resistance to climate change and ability to ward off invasions by non-native species. Knowing that, managers can intervene before a problem takes hold.\u201d<\/p>\n

Building effective models entails a long-term funding commitment to gather more data on the basic biology of riverine species, which means years of field monitoring. Until the data store is built up, keeping the models more simple, and finding ways to make connections across gaps in data, might help.<\/p>\n

\u201cSpecies with similar life histories or characteristics possibly respond in similar ways to changing river conditions, so it\u2019s possible that studies of one species could inform models and management elsewhere,\u201d Tonkin said.<\/p>\n

But ultimately the construction of the best models requires more information, which is why the authors argue that data collection is the top next step for river scientists and managers.<\/p>\n

The other three steps are:<\/p>\n